Another article from the New Scientist website that I found was looking into this question; "Two labs have made lethal, highly transmissible versions of bird flu virus – do the risks of it escaping outweigh the benefits of the research?" (http://tinyurl.com/7q74mgz). The labs have "brewed up variants of H5N1 that can spread between ferrets merely breathing the same air" (http://tinyurl.com/7q74mgz) which shows that this is an extremely contagious virus that could most certainly cause a pandemic in human beings.
I found out about the H5N1 virus, Avian Influenza, on PubMed Health (The World's Largest Medical Library). Avian Influenza is a "flu infection in birds; the virus that causes the infection in birds can mutate to infect humans, such mutation could start a deadly worldwide epidemic" (http://tinyurl.com/3hcyygv). People have been infected with the virus all across the world and "slightly more than 60% of those who became ill have died" (http://tinyurl.com/3hcyygv). This is a staggering statistic, which was also hinted by D. A. Henderson of the University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania who said that the "1918 flu would look like nothing if this really got loose." To give a scale to his words, he is referring to the epidemic "known as 'Spanish Flu' or 'La Grippe' between 1918-1919 which killed between 20 and 40 million people" (http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/).
In 2004 the H5N1 virus "caused poultry disease in eight Asian countries and infected at least 44 people, killing 32, most of these people had close contact with poultry" (http://tinyurl.com/7maqhxz). This shows that there are recent examples of the severity of this flu. New Scientist say that they "don't know for sure that the viruses would behave the same way in people as in ferrets [indicated in the aforementioned experiment], but the assumption has to be that they do" (http://tinyurl.com/7q74mgz). However on another website, http://tinyurl.com/7maqhxz, it is suggested that "the virus does not easily transmit from human to human" due to the binding properties of the H5N1 virus.
I think, based on the theories of the biologists and the conflicting views on how effectively the virus will take hold in humans, that we need to be aware that there is a serious risk associated with laboratories manufacturing and testing this virus and that maybe there should be limited access for those those who are working on the virus, so as to reduce the chances of passing it on. Maybe the scientists should live on a campus where they are isolated from others while they are experimenting on the virus. So in answer to New Scientist's question; "do the risks of it escaping outweigh the benefits of the research?" I would say that yes, it is worth the research so we can learn more about mutations and viruses but there needs to be strict regulations and monitoring in place to deal with the risk of a pandemic.
I found out about the H5N1 virus, Avian Influenza, on PubMed Health (The World's Largest Medical Library). Avian Influenza is a "flu infection in birds; the virus that causes the infection in birds can mutate to infect humans, such mutation could start a deadly worldwide epidemic" (http://tinyurl.com/3hcyygv). People have been infected with the virus all across the world and "slightly more than 60% of those who became ill have died" (http://tinyurl.com/3hcyygv). This is a staggering statistic, which was also hinted by D. A. Henderson of the University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania who said that the "1918 flu would look like nothing if this really got loose." To give a scale to his words, he is referring to the epidemic "known as 'Spanish Flu' or 'La Grippe' between 1918-1919 which killed between 20 and 40 million people" (http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/).
In 2004 the H5N1 virus "caused poultry disease in eight Asian countries and infected at least 44 people, killing 32, most of these people had close contact with poultry" (http://tinyurl.com/7maqhxz). This shows that there are recent examples of the severity of this flu. New Scientist say that they "don't know for sure that the viruses would behave the same way in people as in ferrets [indicated in the aforementioned experiment], but the assumption has to be that they do" (http://tinyurl.com/7q74mgz). However on another website, http://tinyurl.com/7maqhxz, it is suggested that "the virus does not easily transmit from human to human" due to the binding properties of the H5N1 virus.
I think, based on the theories of the biologists and the conflicting views on how effectively the virus will take hold in humans, that we need to be aware that there is a serious risk associated with laboratories manufacturing and testing this virus and that maybe there should be limited access for those those who are working on the virus, so as to reduce the chances of passing it on. Maybe the scientists should live on a campus where they are isolated from others while they are experimenting on the virus. So in answer to New Scientist's question; "do the risks of it escaping outweigh the benefits of the research?" I would say that yes, it is worth the research so we can learn more about mutations and viruses but there needs to be strict regulations and monitoring in place to deal with the risk of a pandemic.
Ben. Interesting argument. Have you read about the Spanish flu influenza pandemic in 1918. See Wikipedia. >50 million deaths (Much more than World War 1). It also predominantly killed young people. There are naturally 3 flu pandemics every 100 years.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we need to keep the virus kept safely in labs so we can predict and develop vaccines before the virus mutates naturally in the wild, thereby causing another Spanish flu pandemic. Remember people who work in labs are often not well paid. The incubation period is 2-4 days. When can you guarantee
freedom from infection? Can it be justified isolating (and paying for) staff being isolated from society potentially for weeks at a time (Something to think about). Ishigawa
Ishigawa. Thank for the website, its quite a good source of information as you said (patient.co.uk), and I will definitely use it in the future. I read about the Spanish pandemic on the internet using alternative sources to Wikipedia, because I understand that it is right a lot of the time but because anyone can change the figures I tend to stay away from Wikipedia. But your point is a valid one, because your right in saying that we cannot justify isolating these scientists for weeks on end. But the issue is, to understand how long it takes to become free of infection we need people to be exposed to it, and by doing that we need to isolate them?! I will most certainly think about it though. Benjamin.
ReplyDeleteWith regards the quoted mortality data. 50 million deaths seem high. Have you checked the student BMJ (free registration) for confirmation? BBC news would also seem to confirm the figures. Remember many deaths in many countries went unreported. Ishigawa
ReplyDeleteAh it does appear that you are correct, checked out the BBC and they said that "In 1918 an outbreak of H1N1 influenza virus killed somewhere between 22 and 100 million people." (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8187300.stm) Refering to the Spanish flu. Benjamin.
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